JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com- The weakening of the rupiah exchange rate to the level of IDR 17,500 per United States (US) dollar is considered not just short-term market turmoil, but a signal of the fragility of the domestic economic structure amidst increasingly severe global pressures.
Indonesian Strategic and Economic Action Institution (ISEAI) economist Ronny P Sasmita assesses that the current depreciation of the rupiah is the result of a combination of external pressure and fundamental problems in the country.
罗尼称当前形势为一场“完美风暴”，将全球动荡与国内脆弱性结合在一起。
Also read: Rupiah Touches IDR 17,529 per US Dollar, the Impact of Indonesia’s Economic Growth is Doubtful
照片/Darryl Ramadhan 周四（2026 年 4 月 23 日），员工在雅加达 Kwitang 的 Ayu Masagung 外币兑换店展示卢比和美元面额。
Ronny 在周四（2026 年 5 月 14 日）的 ISEAI 类型报告中写道：“突破 17,500 盾水平是一个强烈的警报，表明我们的经济基本面脆弱且容易受到全球冲击的影响。”
他表示，印尼盾的压力是由多个全球因素引发的，从中东地缘政治冲突到美国央行美联储的高利率政策。
The conflict in the Strait of Hormuz between the US and Iran is said to be one of the main triggers for the spike in world oil prices.
这种情况对印尼作为石油净进口国产生了直接影响。
Also read: Weakening Rupiah: Economists Warn of Rising Cost of Living in Semester II-2026
“The increase in the price of Brent crude oil to above 110 US dollars per barrel increases the burden on Indonesia’s energy imports,” wrote the report.
At the same time, high US interest rates have caused global investors to withdraw capital from developing countries, including Indonesia, and return to placing their funds in US dollar-based assets which are considered safer.
不过，罗尼认为，印尼盾问题不仅仅来自国外。
PIXABAY/MOHAMAD TRILAKSONO Rupiah illustration.
他强调，印尼的经济增长结构被认为过于依赖国内消费和政府支出，而投资和生产部门不足以支持长期增长。
另请阅读：由于卢比疲软，食品和饮料行业难以调整价格
除此之外，由于MSCI问题、资本外流以及财政和制度的不确定性，投资者对印尼金融市场的担忧也有所增加。
报告写道：“市场对证券交易所透明度和国家支出可持续性的怀疑给以卢比计价的资产带来了额外负担。”
罗尼还批评印尼央行的干预措施，认为这些措施不足以有效地减缓卢比的贬值。
他表示，印尼央行处境艰难，因为它必须在保持汇率稳定的同时保持经济增长。
Also read: Weakening Rupiah Raises Production Costs for the Textile Industry
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